NBL finals possibilities

I received an e-mail from the NBL today about the possible match-ups for the playoffs. With a week to go the top 6 has been cemented but the final round will decide where some of the contenders finish on the ladder and home court advantages.

Finals possibilities

With the final six determined, but only first (South Dragons) and second (Melbourne Tigers) locked in, below is a game-by-game snapshot of how positions three through six might pan out.

Wednesday: Melbourne vs Townsville
The Crocs last game of the year - win and they are guaranteed a home Quarter Final. Lose and they will be praying the Tigers beat the Wildcats on Saturday as well, as that will also secure another home game to Townsville.

Thursday: New Zealand vs Cairns
The Breakers need one more win to guarantee a home playoff game the following week. If they lose their last game at home, they will have to win in Sydney on Saturday to earn it.

Friday: Wollongong vs Adelaide
The 36ers cannot get to fourth to earn a home Quarter Final knockout game and can only climb to fifth if the Breakers lose twice – providing of course Adelaide can win on the road.

Saturday: Sydney vs New Zealand: Perth vs Melbourne
The Breakers might already have a 3-4 finish locked in (if they beat Cairns on Thursday at home) or need this win. Perth may know what their future will hold before they face the Tigers. If the Crocs have won on Wednesday and the Breakers on Thursday, Perth can’t finish in the top four.

Tie breakers

There is a possibility that multiple teams may be tied at the end of the regular season. Below are how some of the possible tie-breakers would pan out:


If Adelaide, New Zealand and Perth tie on 16 wins:

New Zealand beat Perth 3-0 in their season series but lost to Adelaide 1-2
Perth beat Adelaide 2-1 but lost to New Zealand 0-3
Adelaide beat New Zealand 2-1 but lost to Perth 1-2

No team therefore has a clear head-to-head advantage on the other two teams so it comes down to points differential in games played between these three teams only.

Adelaide
Points for vs NZ 278, against 295; vs Perth for 320 against 325

New Zealand
Points for vs Adelaide 295, against 278; vs Perth for 329 against 287
Perth vs Adelaide for 325 against 320 vs New Zealand for 287 against 329

So Adelaide has a total of for 598 against 620 or minus 22 on aggregate 96.45%
New Zealand has a total of 624 for 565 against so plus 59 on aggregate 110.4%
Perth has 612 for and 649 against so minus 37 on aggregate 94.2%

So if all three teams are tied at the end of the regular season on win-loss record, then it would be an order of New Zealand then Adelaide then Perth.


If New Zealand, Perth and Townsville were to tie on 17 wins:

New Zealand beat Perth 3-0 and also beat Townsville 3-1 so they will be the higher ranked team
Perth beat Townsville 3-1 so they will take the second highest ranking
Townsville finish third best in this situation.


Team-by-team Breakdown

South Dragons: (21-8) to play at Cairns on Saturday
Have locked in a first-placed finish.
Has become the first ever team to go from wooden spooners to a top-placed finish the next year. Only two teams had ever previously made the playoffs after a last placed finish the previous year. Illawarra finished sixth in 1998 and Brisbane is the only other team to actually win a playoff game the following year, 2004, when they made it to the Semi Finals but went down to Brian Goorjian’s Kings 0-2.

Best scenario: Have finished on top of the ladder which makes it the eighth time in the last nine seasons that Brian Goorjian’s team has finished first on the ladder.

Worst scenario: None. The last team to finish first on the ladder and not play in the Grand Final was Brian Goorjian’s Victoria Titans in 2002, who finished that year with a 21-9 record.


Melbourne Tigers (19-8) to play at home vs Townsville on Wednesday: at Perth on Saturday
Have secured second place on the ladder
In his fourth season as head coach of the Tigers, Alan Westover has finished second for the fourth straight year. Melbourne have qualified for the Finals in 20 of the last 21 seasons, missing out in just 2001.

Best scenario: Melbourne has been in the Grand Final for the previous three seasons winning two Championships over that time.

Worst scenario: None – cannot be caught by any team below them.


Townsville Crocodiles (17-12) to play at Melbourne on Wednesday
Can finish as high as 3rd and as low as 5th
Continue to impress with their third win over the Dragons last week – a feat no other club has done more than once this year. Coach Trevor Gleeson will be one of just two men in the league (Melbourne’s Alan Westover the other) to lead the same club into the playoffs in the last three years.

Best scenario: A win against the Tigers will guarantee a Crocs home game at ‘The Swamp’ in the Quarter Finals. They will finish finish if they win and the Breakers can’t win both their games. They will be fourth if they beat Melbourne and New Zealand win both their remaining games. They can still lose to the Tigers and get a home final if the Wildcats also lose to Melbourne.

Worst scenario: For Townsville to drop to fifth and miss out on hosting a home Quarter Final game, they would lose to the Tigers on Wednesday and both New Zealand and Perth would need to win one more game each.


New Zealand Breakers (16-12) to play at home vs Cairns on Thursday: at Sydney on Saturday
Can finish as high as 3rd or as low as 6th
The Breakers have won just once from their past nine games and have now lost any chance of finishing in the top two after leading the league as recently as Round 11. New Zealand were in the top two places on the ladder every week from the opening round until week 19 this season.

Best scenario: Two wins this week will guarantee a third place finish and the club’s first-ever home playoff game (against the team finishing sixth). If the Crocs lose to the Tigers on Wednesday, New Zealand have to win just one of their last two to secure a home final. If the Breakers, Crocs and Wildcats are all equal on 17 wins at the end of the season, New Zealand would finish ahead of Perth and then Townsville because they won the season series over both teams.

Worst scenario: One more win will secure at least 3rd or 4th but two losses will possibly drop them as low as 6th and match last year’s record of 16-14. The Breakers can lose both games and still earn a home final if Perth does not beat the Tigers in the final game. If there is a three-way tie between the Breakers, Wildcats and 36ers on 16 wins, the Breakers will finish higher on points differential.


Perth Wildcats (16-13) to play at home vs Melbourne on Saturday
Can finish between 3rd and 6th
This will be 23rd straight year that Perth has qualified for the post season. This year they have struggled to put a winning run together with three consecutive victories their best streak. Only in four other previous seasons since they first made the finals have they not recorded at least a four-game winning run at some stage through the year, (in 1994, 1999 and 2004) and it must be noted that in those post-seasons, Perth were quickly eliminated without winning a finals game in any of those years.

Best scenario: Perth will be watching Fox Sports on Wednesday night cheering on the Tigers like they never have before. A Crocs’ loss will put the Wildcats’ destiny back into their own hands at Challenge Stadium on Saturday. Can finish 3rd if Townsville lose, New Zealand lose twice and Perth win. If Townsville lose but the Breakers win one or two games and Perth win then the Wildcats finish 4th.

Worst scenario: Can still drop to 6th. For that to happen it would be via a three-way tie with Breakers and 36ers all on 16 wins. In that case based on points differential, New Zealand would take 4th, Adelaide 5th and Perth 6th.


Adelaide 36ers (15-14) to play at Wollongong on Friday
Will finish 5th or 6th
It is hard to believe that Adelaide has not won a playoff game since 2003. After two years of watching the finals, Adelaide have secured their place back in the finals but they cannot earn a home Quarter Final.

Best scenario: The only way for the Sixers to get to 5th place would be to have the Breakers, Wildcats and 36ers all finish on 16 wins. With none of those sides having two series wins over the other, points differential means that the Breakers would take 4th, 36ers 5th and Wildcats 6th. If New Zealand wins either of their remaining matches, Adelaide cannot finish higher than 6th.

Worst scenario: Adelaide will be on the road next Wednesday or Thursday in an elimination final so where don’t they want to go? Townsville where they have lost their past six and haven’t won since a one-point thriller in December 2003? New Zealand where they have won this year (ending four straight losses in Auckland) but also where they were blown out by 38 in October? Or Perth where it has been five straight defeats, although this year’s loss was a double-overtime classic?


Cairns Taipans (11-17) to play at New Zealand on Thursday: at home vs South on Saturday

Sydney Spirit (11-18) to play at home vs New Zealand on Saturday

Wollongong Hawks (10-18) to play at home on Friday vs Adelaide: at Gold Coast on Saturday

Gold Coast Blaze (7-22) to play at home vs Wollongong on Saturday

More Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf

I wrote a post a few months back about one of my favourite all-time NBA players and one of the greatest shooters I've seen, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf. It received some positive feedback so when I came across this article from Bounce Magazine I knew I had to share it.

It covers a lot more of his early Chris Jackson years and has plenty of footage of him at LSU just destroying opponents. Click on the title below to read the full story.

The Playground Gave Us Mahmoud, The Artist Formerly Known As Chris Jackson | Streetball, Sneakers, Bobbito, Nike Air Force, Jordans
By Ali

“I’m sorry Chris Jackson, You are for real!” -The Ali re-mix of the OutKast classic, Ms. Jackson

Every generation can lay claim to that one transcendant talent, a shooting star that scorched everything in his path en route to ascending the ladder of LEGEND. For some, their reign at the crescendo was long. For others, the view from the mountaintop was all too brief. For Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, the artist formerly known as Chris Jackson, his extraordinary spontaneous combustion during two remarkable seasons at L.S.U. was enough to tickle the memories of those who witnessed his exploits for a lifetime.

With an arsenal that included an impeccable handle, more shakes than a fervent Beyonce dance routine, a bananas vertical leap, an underrated assist game that was overshadowed by his prolific scoring, lightning hands that thieved like Bernard Madoff and a hiccup-quick release on a jimmy that was as dependable as Oprah, Mahmoud sizzled retinas.

NBA All-Star Three-Point Shootout participants named

Finally the NBA has announced the players taking part in the All-Star game three-point shootout. The All-Star game reserves, dunk contest participants, Rookie Challenge and Skills Contest participants were all named last week but it wasn't until today that the three-point contestants were named. As much as we love everything about All-Star weekend, from a basketball shooting perspective, the three-point shootout is the highlight for us.

Click on the title below to read the full story, but our money is on Jason Kapono (pictured right) to become the three time champ. Although Jason has seen some more court time this year, this event is like the Tour de France is/was for Lance Armstrong.

NBA.com: Kapono leads Three-Point Shootout participants

The Toronto Raptors' Jason Kapono will seek to become the third player to capture three consecutive titles in this year's Foot Locker Three-Point Shootout, which will be held on Saturday, Feb. 14, at US Airways Center, as part of NBA All-Star Saturday Night.

Kapono, who tied Craig Hodges for most points in a single round (25 in the final round last year), will look to join Hodges (1990-92) and Hall of Famer Larry Bird (1986-88) as the only three-time winners of the event. Mark Price, Peja Stojakovic and Jeff Hornacek each won two titles. Kapono will be joined by Eastern Conference All-Star reserves Danny Granger of the Indiana Pacers and Rashard Lewis of the Orlando Magic, Mike Bibby of the Atlanta Hawks, Roger Mason of the San Antonio Spurs and Daequan Cook of the Miami Heat.

Ray Allen ... clutch shooting

You know we love Ray Allen from the Boston Celtics, so you just know that I was going to talk about his game-winning heroics in the Philly game yesterday.

I've mentioned before that if you want to learn how to shoot a basketball or if you want basketball shooting tips, as well as spending time on the practice court you need to watch and study the best shooters. And the best shooters deliver when it matters most, when the game is on the line.

For the game, Ray had 23 points, 9 of 18 from the field, including 3 triples and 2 of 2 from the line. But it was what he did in the final minutes of the game that made the difference, check out the footage below of Ray Allen coming through in the clutch.

And one more thing, how about the circus shot Paul Pierce?? John Rillie is proud of his in-game shots for the HORSE challenge, but can he top this one?

NBL wrap - round 20

Here are the numbers that matter from round 20 in the NBL:

Tigers 92 Dragons 86

For the Tigers:

Chris Anstey 26 points, 10 boards, 4 blocks
David Barlow 20 points (including 4 triples), 6 boards
Tommy Greer 7 points, 8 boards

For the Dragons:

Mark Worthington 25 points, 4 boards, 4 assists
Donta Smith 10 points, 11 boards
Matt Burston 10 points, 11 boards

I was at a friend's place and because the cricket was going so badly for Australia I was able to watch this game in the background chatting with friends. The game was exciting as the Dragons made several runs down the stretch but fell just short. I didn't realise the clips were so bad with the Tigers shooting 40% from the field and the Dragons just 36%. Ebi Ere was 3 of 18, Adam Gibson was 3 of 14 and Dave Thomas went 1 of 7 from the field.

Wildcats 88 Spirit 78

For the Wildcats:

Darnell Hinson 16 points, 6 boards
Peter Crawford 16 points (including 4 triples), 4 assists
Ben Knight 14 points (7 of 8 from the field), 6 boards

For the Spirit:

Jason Smith 15 points
Matthew Knights 12 points, 7 boards
Damian Martin 9 points, 7 boards

My guess is that the Spirit tried to slow this game down to give themselves the best shot at winning an ugly one (like Cairns do). The Wildcats shot 50% from the field and still only scored 88 points. The teams combined for 44 turnovers (22 each) ... that's how not to look after the ball.

Dragons 101 Breakers 94

For the Dragons:

Matt Burston 17 points, 8 boards
Adam Gibson 16 points (8 of 8 from the line)
Donta Smith 9 points, 7 boards

For the Breakers:

Phill Jones 28 points (including 4 triples), 7 boards
Kirk Penney 17 points, 4 boards (but 7 turnovers)

The Breakers went in to this game having won their last couple against the Dragons so to lose at home was costly. The Dragons basically just outshot the Breakers (58% to 43%) which is essentially beating them at their own the game. Oscar Forman's dry spell continues with just 5 points in this one.

Tigers 113 Hawks 104

For the Tigers:

David Barlow 23 points (7 of 11 from the field), 6 boards, 4 assists
Ebi Ere 23 points
Chris Anstey 11 points, 11 boards

For the Hawks:

Kavossy Franklin 28 points, 5 boards, 5 assists
Anthony Petrie 18 points, 9 boards
Glen Saville 12 points, 11 boards, 6 assists

The Tigers jumped out to an early 9 point lead scoring 37 points in the first quarter and controlled the game from there. Hawks shot 55% from the field but had 19 costly turnovers to the Tigers 11. Both teams shot just under 50% from downtown which is pretty impressive.

36ers 107 Wildcats 92

For the 36ers:

Adam Ballinger 27 points (including 5 triples), 6 boards
Luke Schenscher 18 points, 8 boards, 5 assists
Brett Maher 10 points, 8 boards, 4 assists

For the Wildcats:

Isiah Victor 20 points, 11 boards
Shawn Redhage 18 points, 18 boards, 5 assists
Peter Crawford 7 points, 12 boards, 7 assists

56 fouls called in the game and the teams combined to take 81 shots from the line. Both teams shot 40% or under from the field. Costly loss for the Wildcats. Peter Crawford shot just 1 of 12 from the field. Adam Ballinger is having a stellar season!

Crocs 123 Taipans 92

For the Crocs:

John Rillie 26 points (8 of 9 from the field, 6 of 7 from downtown, 4 of 4 from the line), 7 boards
Russell Hinder 17 points, 11 boards
Daniel Egan 15 points, 5 boards, 3 assists

For the Taipans:

Martin Cattalini 18 points, 8 boards (but 6 turnovers)
Matt Smith 10 points, 12 boards
Darnell Mee 14 points

There was plenty of talk in the media prior to this local derby. It didn't fail to deliver the fireworks with Ian Crosswhite getting ejected inside the first 2 minutes. Click here and here for the recap of the "action". Everyone's favourite NBL blogger John Rillie EXPLODED in the first quarter scoring 21 points and essentially ending the game before it had started. The score at half time was Crocs 71, Taipans 45. The Crocs shot an impressive 16 of 30 from downtown.

Blaze 139 Spirit 119

For the Blaze:

James Harvey 42 points (including 8 triples), 6 boards
Shane Heal 31 points (including 7 triples), 7 assists
Luke Whitehead 18 points, 13 boards

For the Spirit:

Matthew Knight 35 points (15 of 21 from the field), 5 boards
Blagov Janev 21 points, 7 boards
David Gruber 19 points, 6 boards

When two of the worst teams (no offence Sydney but you've run out of steam) both shoot over 50% from the field and combine for 258 points, you don't have to ask was anyone playing D ... clearly they were not. Only a dream game by fantasy basketball standards as there were some massive stats on both sides. Justin Bowen wasn't far off an ugly quadruple double (if you include turnovers). The Blaze shot an impressive 22 of 39 (56%) from downtown. The Blaze wish they got this sort of production from the duo of Harvey and Heal every night.

At the end of round 20 in the NBL, the Dragons are just 1/2 a game ahead of the Tigers in second who are riding an 8 game winning streak. The Breakers slip to 3rd just ahead of the Crocs and the Wildcats. The Blaze are still at the bottom while the Hawks and the Spirit are on 5 game losing streaks.

Now, the NBL Player of the Week is yet to be named but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict David Barlow will get the nod. He had two very good games in two wins for the Tigers. If not Barlow they'll probably give it to James Harvey for topping the 40 point mark.

Our Vlade Divac Flop of the Week nominations go to Graeme Dann from the Spirit (1 of 8 from the field and 6 turnovers in a loss to the Wildcats), Ebi Ere from the Tigers (3 of 18 from the field in the blockbuster against the Dragons) and Aaron Grabeau from the Taipans (1 of 8 from the field in a loss to the Crocs). The award has to go to inconsistent Taipans bigman Ian Crosswhite for getting ejected within the first two minutes of the game against the Crocs. Without Crosswhite on court its no wonder this game was over so soon.

As always our Shooter of the Week is brought to you by Shooting Basketball Tips. The honourable mentions go to Blaze backcourt Shane Heal and James Harvey for their long-distance shooting display against the Spirit. The pair combined for 73 points and 15 triples but it was a meaningless/nothing game. The winner tho (and you can call me biaised) is our boy John Rillie from the Townsville Crocs for his 21 point offensive explosion in the first quarter against the rival Taipans. JR hopped in the DeLorean and took us back in time for a vintage display of basketball shooting. With the game over in the first half, JR didn't worry about scoring anymore and instead jumped on the boards. His final line for the night was 26 points on 8 of 9 from the field, 6 of 7 from downtown, 4 of 4 from the line, 7 boards, 2 assists and just 1 turnover. No news whether or not JR wins a CD like he gives away on the OT.

Look at that focus and concentration

Why big men struggle with free throws

Thanks to my boy Aron Phillips at Dime for pointing out the following story that claims its physics rather than co-ordination or lack of practice that explains why the giants of this world aren't great free-throw shooters. At one point I thought I was going to have to pull out a protractor and a calculator to figure it all out!

Click on the title below to read the full story.

Why big men struggle with free throws - Kansas City Star

By Pete Grathoff
The Kansas City Star

Why can’t Shaquille O’Neal make free throws? Why did Wilt Chamberlain, who seemingly could score at will, falter at the line?

Leave it to a physics professor to offer an answer for why many big men struggle at the stripe.

It’s a problem that’s plagued players in the past — Chamberlain (7-foot-1, 51.1 percent free-throw shooter for his career) and Chris Dudley (6-foot-11, 45.8 percent) — and the present — Shaq (7-foot-1, 52.7 percent) and Ben Wallace (6-foot-9, 41.8 percent).

John Fontanella, a former college basketball player who teaches at the U.S. Naval Academy, is author of the book 'The Physics of Basketball.' He explained why tall guys have trouble.

In his book, Fontanella writes that the “window” for the ball to get nothing but net becomes slightly smaller as the height of release increases. However, he goes on to write that with some fine-tuning, such as adjusting the launch angle to lower values, they should be able to achieve an even higher percentage.

Kids, look away now, its about to get ugly ...

Patrick Mills' website

Thanks to the boys at NBA Mate for pointing out that Patty Mills has his own website.

If you didn't see the news last week, unfortunately Mills was injured in the big game against Gonzaga. Here's the recap from Mookie at A Stern Warning. Fingers crossed its not too serious and he's back in action soon.

If you're a fan of Australian basketball or even the NBA, Patrick Mills' website could be one to keep track of as he goes from college star to (hopefully) first round draft pick in the NBA.

We like Pat not just because he's a short, quick, point guard but the kid can shoot! Check out his good basketball shooting form below.