Finals possibilities
With the final six determined, but only first (South Dragons) and second (Melbourne Tigers) locked in, below is a game-by-game snapshot of how positions three through six might pan out.
Wednesday: Melbourne vs Townsville
The Crocs last game of the year - win and they are guaranteed a home Quarter Final. Lose and they will be praying the Tigers beat the Wildcats on Saturday as well, as that will also secure another home game to Townsville.
Thursday: New Zealand vs Cairns
The Breakers need one more win to guarantee a home playoff game the following week. If they lose their last game at home, they will have to win in Sydney on Saturday to earn it.
Friday: Wollongong vs Adelaide
The 36ers cannot get to fourth to earn a home Quarter Final knockout game and can only climb to fifth if the Breakers lose twice – providing of course Adelaide can win on the road.
Saturday: Sydney vs New Zealand: Perth vs Melbourne
The Breakers might already have a 3-4 finish locked in (if they beat Cairns on Thursday at home) or need this win. Perth may know what their future will hold before they face the Tigers. If the Crocs have won on Wednesday and the Breakers on Thursday, Perth can’t finish in the top four.
Tie breakers
There is a possibility that multiple teams may be tied at the end of the regular season. Below are how some of the possible tie-breakers would pan out:
If Adelaide, New Zealand and Perth tie on 16 wins:
New Zealand beat Perth 3-0 in their season series but lost to Adelaide 1-2
Perth beat Adelaide 2-1 but lost to New Zealand 0-3
Adelaide beat New Zealand 2-1 but lost to Perth 1-2
No team therefore has a clear head-to-head advantage on the other two teams so it comes down to points differential in games played between these three teams only.
Adelaide
Points for vs NZ 278, against 295; vs Perth for 320 against 325
New Zealand
Points for vs Adelaide 295, against 278; vs Perth for 329 against 287
Perth vs Adelaide for 325 against 320 vs New Zealand for 287 against 329
So Adelaide has a total of for 598 against 620 or minus 22 on aggregate 96.45%
New Zealand has a total of 624 for 565 against so plus 59 on aggregate 110.4%
Perth has 612 for and 649 against so minus 37 on aggregate 94.2%
So if all three teams are tied at the end of the regular season on win-loss record, then it would be an order of New Zealand then Adelaide then Perth.
If New Zealand, Perth and Townsville were to tie on 17 wins:
New Zealand beat Perth 3-0 and also beat Townsville 3-1 so they will be the higher ranked team
Perth beat Townsville 3-1 so they will take the second highest ranking
Townsville finish third best in this situation.
Team-by-team Breakdown
South Dragons: (21-8) to play at Cairns on Saturday
Have locked in a first-placed finish.
Has become the first ever team to go from wooden spooners to a top-placed finish the next year. Only two teams had ever previously made the playoffs after a last placed finish the previous year. Illawarra finished sixth in 1998 and Brisbane is the only other team to actually win a playoff game the following year, 2004, when they made it to the Semi Finals but went down to Brian Goorjian’s Kings 0-2.
Best scenario: Have finished on top of the ladder which makes it the eighth time in the last nine seasons that Brian Goorjian’s team has finished first on the ladder.
Worst scenario: None. The last team to finish first on the ladder and not play in the Grand Final was Brian Goorjian’s Victoria Titans in 2002, who finished that year with a 21-9 record.
Melbourne Tigers (19-8) to play at home vs Townsville on Wednesday: at Perth on Saturday
Have secured second place on the ladder
In his fourth season as head coach of the Tigers, Alan Westover has finished second for the fourth straight year. Melbourne have qualified for the Finals in 20 of the last 21 seasons, missing out in just 2001.
Best scenario: Melbourne has been in the Grand Final for the previous three seasons winning two Championships over that time.
Worst scenario: None – cannot be caught by any team below them.
Townsville Crocodiles (17-12) to play at Melbourne on Wednesday
Can finish as high as 3rd and as low as 5th
Continue to impress with their third win over the Dragons last week – a feat no other club has done more than once this year. Coach Trevor Gleeson will be one of just two men in the league (Melbourne’s Alan Westover the other) to lead the same club into the playoffs in the last three years.
Best scenario: A win against the Tigers will guarantee a Crocs home game at ‘The Swamp’ in the Quarter Finals. They will finish finish if they win and the Breakers can’t win both their games. They will be fourth if they beat Melbourne and New Zealand win both their remaining games. They can still lose to the Tigers and get a home final if the Wildcats also lose to Melbourne.
Worst scenario: For Townsville to drop to fifth and miss out on hosting a home Quarter Final game, they would lose to the Tigers on Wednesday and both New Zealand and Perth would need to win one more game each.
New Zealand Breakers (16-12) to play at home vs Cairns on Thursday: at Sydney on Saturday
Can finish as high as 3rd or as low as 6th
The Breakers have won just once from their past nine games and have now lost any chance of finishing in the top two after leading the league as recently as Round 11. New Zealand were in the top two places on the ladder every week from the opening round until week 19 this season.
Best scenario: Two wins this week will guarantee a third place finish and the club’s first-ever home playoff game (against the team finishing sixth). If the Crocs lose to the Tigers on Wednesday, New Zealand have to win just one of their last two to secure a home final. If the Breakers, Crocs and Wildcats are all equal on 17 wins at the end of the season, New Zealand would finish ahead of Perth and then Townsville because they won the season series over both teams.
Worst scenario: One more win will secure at least 3rd or 4th but two losses will possibly drop them as low as 6th and match last year’s record of 16-14. The Breakers can lose both games and still earn a home final if Perth does not beat the Tigers in the final game. If there is a three-way tie between the Breakers, Wildcats and 36ers on 16 wins, the Breakers will finish higher on points differential.
Perth Wildcats (16-13) to play at home vs Melbourne on Saturday
Can finish between 3rd and 6th
This will be 23rd straight year that Perth has qualified for the post season. This year they have struggled to put a winning run together with three consecutive victories their best streak. Only in four other previous seasons since they first made the finals have they not recorded at least a four-game winning run at some stage through the year, (in 1994, 1999 and 2004) and it must be noted that in those post-seasons, Perth were quickly eliminated without winning a finals game in any of those years.
Best scenario: Perth will be watching Fox Sports on Wednesday night cheering on the Tigers like they never have before. A Crocs’ loss will put the Wildcats’ destiny back into their own hands at Challenge Stadium on Saturday. Can finish 3rd if Townsville lose, New Zealand lose twice and Perth win. If Townsville lose but the Breakers win one or two games and Perth win then the Wildcats finish 4th.
Worst scenario: Can still drop to 6th. For that to happen it would be via a three-way tie with Breakers and 36ers all on 16 wins. In that case based on points differential, New Zealand would take 4th, Adelaide 5th and Perth 6th.
Adelaide 36ers (15-14) to play at Wollongong on Friday
Will finish 5th or 6th
It is hard to believe that Adelaide has not won a playoff game since 2003. After two years of watching the finals, Adelaide have secured their place back in the finals but they cannot earn a home Quarter Final.
Best scenario: The only way for the Sixers to get to 5th place would be to have the Breakers, Wildcats and 36ers all finish on 16 wins. With none of those sides having two series wins over the other, points differential means that the Breakers would take 4th, 36ers 5th and Wildcats 6th. If New Zealand wins either of their remaining matches, Adelaide cannot finish higher than 6th.
Worst scenario: Adelaide will be on the road next Wednesday or Thursday in an elimination final so where don’t they want to go? Townsville where they have lost their past six and haven’t won since a one-point thriller in December 2003? New Zealand where they have won this year (ending four straight losses in Auckland) but also where they were blown out by 38 in October? Or Perth where it has been five straight defeats, although this year’s loss was a double-overtime classic?
Cairns Taipans (11-17) to play at New Zealand on Thursday: at home vs South on Saturday
Sydney Spirit (11-18) to play at home vs New Zealand on Saturday
Wollongong Hawks (10-18) to play at home on Friday vs Adelaide: at Gold Coast on Saturday
Gold Coast Blaze (7-22) to play at home vs Wollongong on Saturday
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