The League’s Best Shooters

My boy Tux shot me an e-mail today with the below article and it was so good I just had to share it. Its all about the top shooters in the NBA and includes my boys Ray Allen and Steve Nash, so how could I not post it?

Its from the site Basketball Free For All which is a blog Tux reads and I will need to make sure I do too from now on.


The League’s Best Shooters « General « Basketball Free For All
Phil Londen

When discussing the best shooters in the game today, two names are commonly mentioned more often than others: Steve Nash and Ray Allen. Both are proficient from virtually anywhere on the court, including from the free throw line and from downtown. They are often in the games during clutch situations and both players have an impressive portfolio of clutch shots on their resume. Even more telling, both players are often heralded for their jump shots by coaches and analysts alike.

Discussions of great shooters ultimately lead to a few questions. Who is the better shooter now? Who has been the better shooter over the course of their career? And how does the better of the two shooters stack up against some of the other historically great shooters of the three point era? And what can we learn about the players from looking at the numbers?

Ray Allen versus Steve Nash

They are often referred to as natural shooters ostensibly because they have some innate abilities that allow them to shoot the ball at an exceptional clip. But that is only part of the story. Both Ray and Steve are renowned for their work ethic and their practice routines. Allen routinely knocks down 247 out of 250 shots before every game and credits a lot of his practice work ethic to his college coach at UConn, Jim Calhoun. Nash credits his work ethic during practices and the offseason as one of the primary reasons he was even able to be successful in the League, as he wasn’t blessed with extraordinary athleticism or size that is normally a prerequisite for NBA hopefuls.

Currently, both players are still extremely effective shooters from all over the court, although Allen has been slumping a bit recently perhaps as a result of the rampant trade rumors swirling around the struggling Celtics. It’s hard to gauge the full effect of the epidemic trade rumors at this part of the season but there has to be some sort of fallout, whether positive or negative. As non-professional athletes, we’ll never experience it ourselves and can only guess what it must be like. Allen is posting a pretty average season (for him, that is) in terms of shooting percentages, shooting .450 from the field, .338 from three and .892 at the stripe giving him a true shooting percentage of .568. His peak season was actually last season with the Celtics, where he put up .480/.409/.952 on his way to a true shooting percentage of .624 during an all-around excellent shooting campaign.

Nash, on the other hand, is still putting up incredible percentages across the board, shooting .522 percent from the field, .438 from downtown and .939 from the line. He is also averaging the second highest true shooting percentage of his entire career at .635. During his peak shooting season of 2006-07, he shot .532/.455/.899 for a true shooting percentage of .654.

In terms of career numbers, Nash has percentages of .489 from the floor, .432 percent from downtown and .903 percent from the line. These are nearly career averages of 50/40/90 in fourteen seasons and over 30,000 minutes played. His career true shooting percentage is .606. All of Nash’s career numbers are pretty mind-blowing and definitely put him amongst the elite shooters in the three point era. In nearly 37,000 minutes over a fifteen year career, Ray Allen has posted percentages of .448/.396/.893 and a true shooting percentage of .574. Again, Ray’s numbers are extremely impressive in their own right, but he falls just short of Nash’s ridiculous percentages.

In terms of current production, Nash has the edge. In terms of peak production, Nash again has the edge. And finally, in terms of career percentages, Nash once again has the edge. Nash is the clear-cut winner, making a strong case to be considered the best active shooter in the NBA.

But there is more.

Breaking it down even further by range using shot data location for both Steve Nash and Ray Allen, we can chop the floor into zones and compare their shooting percentages in each midrange area to see where each player excelled during their peak seasons (2006-07 for Nash, 2008-09 for Allen). At the rim, Nash shot a scorching 67 percent with Ray shooting 60 percent. From less than ten feet, Allen shot 60 percent, trumping Nash’s 59 percent. From ten-to-fifteen, Nash shot 53 percent and Ray shot 47 percent. Finally, from 16-to-23 feet (a.k.a the long two a.k.a the worst shot in basketball), Steve shot 50 percent with Allen barely trailing at 49 percent; pretty much a push with the Canadian having the slight edge. Again, Steve is the overall better shooter in most areas of the floor with the area from the rim to ten feet belonging to Allen.

With Nash seemingly the better shooter based upon the statistics alone, is there any possible explanation as to why Nash’s percentages may be inflated relative to Allen’s?

Perhaps it is related to the positions each player plays on the court? Steve plays the point, meaning opposing players expect him to distribute, possibly giving him easier looks when he does decide to shoot (initiates the offense). He may also only choose to shoot when he has high percentage looks at the rim (shot selection). Ray plays the two guard, meaning opposing players expect him to shoot possibly giving him more difficult looks as players are hesitant to give him any space whatsoever (defined role). He is also subject to the point guard’s whims which can result in being forced into taking lower percentage shots (designated gunner). While these counter-points are valid, they are not enough to explain away the statistical dominance of Steve Nash’s shooting numbers over Ray Allen’s shooting numbers.

Now, with that debate more or less settled, the question becomes how does Nash stack up against some of the all time great shooters of the three point era?

The 50-40-90 Club

The mark of an elite shooter is their ability to shoot well from the field, the free throw line and from behind the three point line. The gold standard of elite shooters in each of these three areas is 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from the free three and 90 percent from the line. Hitting all of these milestones and sustaining those averages over an 82 game season presents the challenge that separates the historically great shooters from the merely the above-average shooters.

Before proceeding, a disclaimer. The 50-40-90 Club is definitely not the ultimate measure of elite shooters in the League. It is simply one means of comparing players objectively in the three major areas of shooting, from the field, from the three point line and from the free throw line. Plus, the results pass the laugh test, as the Club members includes names everybody mentions when discussing the great shooters of the three point era.

Take a look at the current list of members of the 50-40-90 Club. Since the inception of the three point line in 1979, only seven players have obtained membership to the Club (total of eleven separate seasons). Only two players have ever joined the list more than once with Steve Nash appearing four separate times (2005-06; 2007-08; 2008-09; 2009-10) and Larry Bird appearing twice (1986-87; 1987-88). The other single season members are Dirk Nowitzki (2006-07), Steve Kerr (1995-96), Jose Calderon (2007-08), Mark Price (1988-89) and Reggie Miller (1993-94). Notice that Ray Allen has never made the 50-40-90 Club in his career, which further reinforces the notion that Nash is probably the better shooter of the two.

Not bad company at all, especially considering Nash’s four appearances in the Club double the nearest competitor (Larry Legend). Without taking too much away from Nash, changes to hand checking rules among other rules have probably greatly benefited Nash (not to mention Calderon and Dirk as well) making it a bit easier to join the 50-40-90 Club. The point of mentioning this isn’t to detract from Nash or the others that joined the Club since the hand-checking rules but instead to highlight what an achievement it is for Larry Legend, Mark, Steve and Reggie. Just imagine Miller’s or Bird’s numbers if opposing defenders weren’t allowed to touch him when he was facing the basket?

This season, Nash is the only current member of the 50-40-90 Club. However, if you loosen the terms a bit to 47/37/87 percent, you see that there are a few other players on the cusp of joining the 50-40-90 Club including Anthony Morrow, Kevin Durant, Luke Ridnour and Beno Udrih. Also, Dirk is on the cusp of joining Nash and Bird in the elite group of players making multiple appearances in the 50-40-90 Club under those same loosened terms. Mike Miller receives the honorable mention for joining the on-the-cusp group with Miller being deficient in only free throw percentage (.828 this season). At the same time, if he qualified (minimum 700 points scored in season), he would be posting a League-best true shooting percentage of .714, based largely upon his absurd three point percentage of .538.

Conclusions

After reviewing the data, a few things are fairly clear. In the debate of Ray Allen versus Steve Nash, Nash is most likely the superior shooter, with Nash topping Ray during the current season, during their respective peak seasons and during their entire careers. As mentioned before, there are perhaps positional explanations for why Nash may have gotten easier looks than Ray throughout his career. It is also clear that Nash is one of the elite shooters of the three point era. However, being unable to compare the careers of the pre- and post-hand-checking rule eras, it is almost impossible to definitively so one way or the other so Nash is relegated to only being one of the best shooters of the three point era as a four-time member of the 50-40-90 Club.